Deadly Second Wave Is on Peak in India
The Total Nationwide Daily Diagnosed Active COVID-19 Cases Have Fallen Below 200,000 For the First Time Since April 14 On Monday
India recorded more than 26 million diagnosed active confirmed cases of coronavirus infection majorly due to the deadly second wave, coming in at second after the United States. This has become the latest epicenter for the global COVID-19 pandemic.
The deadly second wave which hit India in the past recent few weeks has overwhelmed the entire medical healthcare system of the country, which left hospitals and care facilities struggling with the limited number of critical drugs and a complete shortage of oxygen supply in an extreme time of need.
It has been observed that the rate of transmission of coronavirus infection throughout the country is slightly declining as compared to the rapid surge experienced across the region in the past few weeks amid the deadly second wave. On Monday, the total number of diagnosed cases across India was below 200,000, which was the first time since the rapid increase began on April 14.
Is the deadly second wave in India ending?
According to the experts, the second wave of COVID-19 with deadly effects has reached havoc throughout the country in a matter of just a few weeks, but it is believed that currently, the deadly second wave in India is waning overtime on the national level.
The average of the recently diagnosed active cases of COVID-19 infection has reached a peak amount at 392,000, after which it has been on a steady decrease over time for the previous two weeks.
Although the deadly second wave has been observed to be declining overall across India, it is by no means applicable to all states throughout the country. It has been observed that the coronavirus infection has recently reached its declining levels in several of the states across India, including Delhi, Chhattisgarh, and Maharashtra. Meanwhile, in the state of Tamil Nadu, the number of cases is on the rise. And the situation in the areas of West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh is still unclear.
The deadly second wave which came to India was not uniform throughout the country, and some of the states in India have yet to experience their peak number of active cases. However, it has been ensured that in some of the major cities of the country, the peak levels of active confirmed COVID-19 infectious patients are coming down gradually.
India is not safe yet
The factor which complicates these finding regarding the deadly second wave of coronavirus is the rural sector of India, as said by Dr. Murad Banaji, who is a mathematician working at the Middlesex University London. There is a possibility that the total number of transmission cases across the nation has not reached its actual peak level, but it could not be observed in the statistical data, as the infection is now spreading towards the rural sites of the country and does not have the facility for the residents for COVID-19 testing.
According to Dr. Sitabhra Sinha, a research scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in the city of Chennai in India said that the observed heterogeneity at the localized level in the country is making it difficult to predict whether the sharp decline in the active COVID-19 cases from the deadly second wave would be sustainable for long duration or not.
The biostatistician at the University of Michigan, Bhramar Mukherjee, is also in agreement with this as he is also tracking the coronavirus pandemic in the region. He said that the notion that the peak intensity of this deadly viral infection has passed through the region in the form of a deadly second wave would only provide a false sense of security to the residents of the country, when in fact, their states are entering into a severe mode of crisis, due to which it must be made clear that no state of the country is currently completely safe from the deadly second wave of COVID-19 infection.
Reproduction Number of coronavirus
The reproduction number of viruses, which are also known as R0 and R- provides a way to rate the ability for further spreading of the disease meanwhile trying to estimate the average amount of people that could be infected from an already infected individual. The difference between both of these values is that R0 is usually calculated at the time of the onset of infection, at the time when a large population is susceptible to the disease.
R- is calculated when the epidemic in the region is further progressed due to localized transmission of infection, and a fraction of the total population has been able to recover back to optimum health from the disease and has become immune.